Partly Sunny Morning

This morning it is partly sunny. It is almost 50ºF already and today's temps should reach the lower 60's. There is a 30% chance of rain this afternoon that will increase to 70% for tonight.

   Winds are currently out of the Southwest at 4.7 mph. Tonights temps will be in the lower 40's with the attendant increase in rain probability.

The readings outside right now are:

a relative humidity of 82% with a Dew Point of 44.2ºF.

The temperature is 49.7ºF, with almost no wind chill.

The wind velocity is presently between 1.3 mph and 4.0 mph out of the Southwest.

Our Barometric pressure is 29.71 and falling.

There was no rain yesterday with a 30% chance for this afternoon increasing to 70% for this evening.

Visibility is presently 10.0 miles and the ceiling is presently at 11,000 feet.

 

Yesterday we looked at how animals might be able to predict weather. Today lets look at a wooly worm to see if it can predict it.  

Can Woolly Worms Really Predict the Winter Weather?

According to folk wisdom, the narrower the brown band on the woolly bear, the harsher the winter we'll have.

Legend has it that the woolly worm, a tiger moth caterpillar, can portend what weather winter will bring. In the fall, people look for wandering woolly worms to determine whether winter will be mild or harsh. How much truth is there in this old adage? Can woolly worms really predict the winter weather?

The woolly worm is actually the larval stage of the Isabella tiger moth, Pyrrharctia Isabella. Also known as woolly bears or banded woolly bears, these caterpillars have black bands at each end, and a band of reddish-brown in the middle. The Isabella tiger moth overwinters in the larval stage. In the fall, caterpillars seek shelter under leaf litter or other protected places.

According to folk wisdom, when the brown bands on fall woolly bears are narrow, it means a harsh winter is coming. The wider the brown band, the milder the winter will be. Some towns hold annual woolly worm festivals in the fall, complete with caterpillar races and an official declaration of the woolly worm's prediction for that winter.

Are the woolly worm's bands really an accurate way to predict the winter weather? Dr. C.H. Curran, former curator of insects at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City, tested the woolly worms' accuracy in the 1950's. His surveys found an 80% accuracy rate for the woolly worms' weather predictions.

Other researchers have not been able to replicate the success rate of Curran's caterpillars, though. Today, entomologists agree that woolly worms are not accurate predictors of winter weather. Many variables may contribute to changes in the caterpillar's coloration, including larval stage, food availability, temperature or moisture during development, age, and even species.