#MEwx Special Tropical weather Outlook

Special Tropical Weather Outlook (Atlantic)

Issued by the NWS National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL

9:05 AM UTC, Thu Aug 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of

the system south of Jamaica.

Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better

organized in association with a trough of low pressure located less

than 200 miles south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain

conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is

expected to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecast to

move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the

Cayman Islands tonight, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of

Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Given

the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the

Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be

required later today.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will

be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today

and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan

Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could bring dangerous

impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of

the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas

late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains

large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas

should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they

have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve

reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later

today, if necessary. Additional information on this system,

including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued

by the National Weather Service.   

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and

thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles

east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to

be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is

likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves

slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located

several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is

producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some development

of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves

west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical

Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive

for development by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

 

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service

can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01

KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php